Friday, August 07, 2009

John Smoltz Is Not Finished

Freely available talent has a new face: a future HoF starting pitcher who has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning over the past four years with a K/BB ratio over four and reasonable G/F ratios. (This year, he's struck out 33 and walked nine over 40 IP in the AL East.)

There is nothing in John Smoltz's 2009 peripherals to suggest he can't be a solid mid-rotation starter for a contender. His 8.33 ERA is a mirage of sample size and pitching in terrible luck. Every contending team currently sports a staff with at least one starter--and several relievers--worse than Smoltz.

Will the GMs of those teams start a bidding war for Smoltz's services? Nope, they're still using ERA to evaluate pitchers. In their defense, it looks like BBTF was fooled as well.

3 comments:

stevek said...

crock I watched every game he pitched this year and if there is any value left it's in the bullpen. His fastball is average (91-92), it's the only pitch he can throw for a strike and he hasn't been able to locate very well. He gets through the order once OK on reputation but on the second and third looks it's been batting practice. Literally.

the right reverend said...

i think its now time for the sox to release beckett too.. he's given up more runs than smoltz did during his bad run and will hit 30 later this year.. He gets through the order once ok on reputation but on the second and third it's been batting practice (except he's been striking out a quarter of the batters he faces)

Kyle - Driveline Mechanics said...

Justice.