Friday, August 07, 2009

John Smoltz Is Not Finished

Freely available talent has a new face: a future HoF starting pitcher who has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning over the past four years with a K/BB ratio over four and reasonable G/F ratios. (This year, he's struck out 33 and walked nine over 40 IP in the AL East.)

There is nothing in John Smoltz's 2009 peripherals to suggest he can't be a solid mid-rotation starter for a contender. His 8.33 ERA is a mirage of sample size and pitching in terrible luck. Every contending team currently sports a staff with at least one starter--and several relievers--worse than Smoltz.

Will the GMs of those teams start a bidding war for Smoltz's services? Nope, they're still using ERA to evaluate pitchers. In their defense, it looks like BBTF was fooled as well.