Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Financial Hindsight

I've seen a lot of this type of post lately on the Freakonomics blog, among other places: people who "predicted" the current economic situation.

I hope the readers of R-D know this is BS. People make guesses all the time. Sometimes they're right, and point to their correct assessment; but often they are dead wrong, and it gets swept under the rug. This is no different from a sports betting tout service, where they pick approximately 50 percent winners but make it look like much more through creative advertising.

Just in the first two predictions I made here, you can find one that says I'm Nostradamus and another that makes me look like Thomas Malthus. If you wanted to, you could write a blog post calling me either an idiot or a genius, with solid evidence to back it up.

The economy is in its current situation for a lot of reasons, the foremost being that risk is so misunderstood by so many people. That doesn't mean anyone foresaw this exact scenario seven years ago. Stop pretending that they could have.

2 comments:

Garrett W. said...

Unknown unknowns.

ben said...

http://media.photobucket.com/image/negrodamus/glowtechstringpara/NEGRODAMUS.jpg