Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Super Bowl XLIII: The Coin Toss

No, this isn't a prop bet offering you -105 on Heads or Tails. I just think that when they sit down to make a film documenting the 2009 Super Bowl, this would make a fine title.

Take a look at the NFL Futures odds from The Greek (found here). Since they're collecting roughly the same juice on the Super Bowl and both conference markets (about 16%), we can use each team's Super Bowl and conference odds to calculate their approximate chances--in The Greek's opinion--of winning the Super Bowl should they get there:

Bal .516
Den .520
Ind .525
Mia .434
NE .612
NYJ .401
Pit .459
SD .519
Ten .473

Ari .358
Atl .449
Car .568
Chi .512
Dal .504
Min .496
NYG .493
Phi .549
TB .572

I doubt any of Olympic Sports' oddsmakers actually think that New England and Tampa Bay are the best the NFL has to offer, but talk about having no clear-cut favorite. The number 1 seeds from both conferences are dogs in the big game, and if Atlanta wins the NFC South--which they have a downright decent chance to do--both 2 seeds will be dogs as well!

Hey, at least they correctly identified the weakest participant in the tournament.

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