Tuesday, October 21, 2008

WS Game 1

Tam +100 (1)

2 comments:

Boo Cocky said...

You like Philly to win the series but Tampa to win game one? Two questions:

1) Hamels is the only SP that gives them a distinct advantage in a match up so if you think they lose with him on the mound how do the Phils win the series?
2) Why not wait to take Philly after game one when their odds would be more juicy should they lose?

Love the blog.

j holz said...

I disagree with 1). Kazmir is a very good pitcher, and I believe the Phillies have a better chance of winning all three home games than they do of winning Game 1.

As for 2), that's not how gambling works. This is similar to saying "I'll sell this stock as soon as it picks up another few points" or "I'll hedge this bet after they get a little closer to winning and the hedge odds get better." There's never a guarantee that this situation will arrive, and even if it does, the bet may be incorrect at that point.

If you believe a stock is worth less than its current sale price, you sell it. Similarly, I felt Philly was a value at this price. If they lost Game 1, maybe the odds would have encouraged me to bet again, maybe not.