Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Playoff Bets: Futures

Moving right along...

Dodgers +200 to win NLDS
Cubs -145 to NOT win NL

This series line is ludicrous. Maybe gamblers think the Cubs are due, or they like the round number of 100 years, or Cubs fans just have a lot of money and want to back them. It doesn't really matter; the Dodgers are not your typical 84-win team, and they're actually starting their best pitchers at the front of their playoff rotation, unlike the Cubs.

I make the true line Cubs -108. +200 is an outright steal.

The NL line follows similar logic; the Cubs are going to be overrated in both their playoff series, so why not bet against them in both at the same time?

Milwaukee +164 to win NLDS

Not as clear-cut, but still worthwhile. The Brewers are getting C.C. Sabathia for two starts in the series, and Yovani Gallardo is a capable replacement for Ben Sheets. The gap between the
offenses is not large, and the bullpens are roughly even except for the closers.

Milwaukee +1500 to win the World Series is also tempting, but betting them in every series is probably better, especially if they face the Cubs. They're just crazy enough to start Sabathia three times in a seven-game series, which is a huge bonus.

Philadelphia +880 to win World Series

If you're a fan of hedge funds, the last two bets make a nice combo of solid ROI and low risk. I don't see how Philly can be a 5-1 dog to win the World Series if they advance to the NLCS, which is what these two lines imply. Even though there's a talent gap between the leagues, the AL playoff field is not especially strong, and I don't see the Phils being a big dog in the World Series unless they face a healthy Red Sox team.

Tampa Bay +326 to win AL

Apparently the oddsmakers at Pinnacle still don't think this team is for real.

Interestingly, the Rays opened at -160 to win their ALDS--a fair price by my figuring--so this line implies they'd be a +160 dog in the ALCS, on average. I have them favored to win the ALCS should they get there, so one of us is off by a lot. Hopefully it isn't me.

Angels -400 to NOT win World Series

I've been over this a million times: the Angels are the third-best team in the AL, and the fifth-best playoff team overall. They'd probably be better off if the playoffs were a series of coin flips, which would make -700 the fair price for this bet.

1 comment:

Jon said...

was able to snatch LAD @ +187 for the series. thanks again for sharing, I hope you had another great regular season.