For games 1-4, I used an approximate no-vig betting line near the closing price:
Game 1: Phi -101
Game 2: Phi +165
Game 3: Phi +112
Game 4: Phi +104
Games 5-7 contain the opening no-vig line for Game 5 and extrapolated odds for Games 6 and 7, based on previous game lines:
Game 5: Phi -170
Game 6: Phi +165
Game 7: Phi +165
By the way, if you want to argue that home-field advantage shouldn't be enough to move the game line from -101 to -170 with the same pitching matchup, you're preaching to the choir. Moving on...
- Based on these lines, the series line "should" have been Phi +141, which isn't far off the mid-market line of about Phi +132.
- The series breaks down thusly:
|Phi in 4||.043|
|Phi in 5||.132|
|Phi in 6||.118|
|Phi in 7||.121|
|Tam in 4||.084|
|Tam in 5||.108|
|Tam in 6||.200|
|Tam in 7||.194|
I took a few bets concerning the exact series result. I won't grade them because they were off-market lines--that's basically the only way to make money on this kind of bet--but you can see why it pays to do these calculations yourself:
Tam wins 4-3 (+650)
Phi wins 4-3 (+800)
Phi wins 4-1 (+805 and +750)
Tam wins 4-2 (+465)
WS lasts 7 games (+380)
Phi wins 4-1 (+330; bet after Game 3) - Game odds say 30.7%
Bodog also had some other props that they set terrible lines for:
Phi wins G1 and WS (+275) - Game odds say 28.6%
Tam wins G1 and WS (+225) - Game odds say 36.9%
7-game series, Phi wins G1 (+750) - Game odds say 16.9%
7-game series, Tam wins G1 (+850) - Game odds say 14.6%
For the most part, however, the books were dealing good enough lines on these props that you were better off betting individual games.
Some more exotic props included "Will the winning team clinch at home?" or point spreads like Tampa+1.5, where you won if Tampa won the series or "covered" by losing 4-3. These were only offered at a couple of books, and those books were consistent with the individual game lines.
All in all, not a bad job; only four sportsbooks--and only one big online book--contributed to the off-market lines, and the vast majority of the good bets were from Bodog.