Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Timeline of Evaluation

December 20: "No need to tell Carlos Silva how crazy it is that the Seattle Mariners gave him a $48 million, four-year contract.

"In this market, we felt this was the No. 1 guy out there," Bavasi said."

-ESPN

January 28: "Mariners receive: SP Erik Bedard (3)

Orioles receive: OF Adam Jones, RP George Sherrill, SP Chris Tillman, SP Tony Butler, and RP Kam Mickolio (8)"

-Me

February 8: "After weeks of delays, denials, flights and physicals, the Seattle Mariners have their ace."

-ESPN

(I can predict the future. Awesome, right?)

February 11: "As any intelligent fan can tell you, you want pitchers who strike batters out and induce ground balls. The Mariners are spending $30 million/year on three guys who don't do either of those things particularly well: Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista."

-Me

February 15: "GM Bill Bavasi's back was to the wall, and he pulled out a gem, acquiring talented left-hander Erik Bedard. The price was steep, and included top outfield prospect Adam Jones. But it was worth it. On the other hand, the price for Carlos Silva -- $48 million -- might have been a tad high, but he could thrive in a big ballpark and with a superior defense. A"

-Jon Heyman

March: "PREDICTIONS
  • Jayson Stark

    Stark
    90-72
    1st in
    AL West

  • Tim Kurkjian

    Kurkjian
    91-71
    2nd in
    AL West

  • Buster Olney

    Olney
    90-72
    1st in
    AL West

  • Keith Law

    Law
    82-80
    2nd in
    AL West

  • Steve Phillips

    Phillips
    92-70
    1st in
    AL West"


March 29: "The Mariners will finish last in the division

Seattle has the worst or second-worst (Minnesota) offense in the AL, and may be the worst defensive team in the league."

-Me

September 17: "
Is Bedard a candidate to be non-tendered? The Mariners would have to pay him something in the range of $10 million next year, when he's eligible for arbitration. Unless he comes out of the surgery cleanly, with minimal damage detected, it is something the Mariners should consider"

-Buster Olney

Postscript: The Mariners have already clinched last place in the AL West. They're ranked 13th in the AL in scoring, ahead of only Oakland, and 12th in Defensive Efficiency.

The pitchers mentioned have these stats as of today:

Silva: 4-15, 6.42 ERA. Good think he's not in a small ballpark with an inferior defense!
Bedard: 6-4, 3.67 ERA, may get non-tendered. Was it worth it, Bavasi?
Washburn: 5-14, 4.69 ERA
Batista: 4-13, 6.19 ERA

I certainly can't think of a better value for $37 million, Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and three prospects.

Edit: Try and ignore that comment about Minnesota having one of the worst offenses in the league. Although, they are ninth in the league in AEQR, and eighth in OPS+, so there!

No comments: