Monday, July 21, 2008

K-Rod's Quest

Francisco Rodriguez is way ahead of the pace to break the all-time saves record, but is he really that likely to finish the job?

The Angels have 63 games remaining. K-Rod needs 18 saves to break the record. Right off the bat, that's a pace for 46.3 saves per 162 games, which I don't think is sustainable for any closer in the long run. Remember, picking up saves is more about situation than skill; just ask last season's AL saves leader--who, by the way, couldn't manage 46 saves.

Assuming a more realistic pace of one save per four team games--a 25% chance of a save in each remaining Angels game--K-Rod has a 29.9% chance of breaking the record. Assuming a 45 save/season pace, it's basically a coin flip: 49.2% to break it.

Either way, unless some sportsbook puts a line up on this, I don't really care. Saves are by far the dumbest widely available baseball stat, and it's ridiculous that they've outlived their creator. However, I will certainly enjoy it when some team overpays Rodriguez this offseason thinking he's coming off a career year, when in fact his numbers have been getting steadily worse every season--plus the experts agree he's a huge injury risk.

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