Sunday, July 06, 2008

How Not To Re-Sign Your Closer

...when his line reads like this:

2-0, 19/19 saves, 0.77 ERA

Yes, Brad Lidge is one of the better closers in baseball. However, he's THE SAME PITCHER he was last year, and the year before that:

Year K/G BB/G GB% ERA
2006 11.9 4.1 43.90% 5.28
2007 11.9 4.1 42.40% 3.36
2008 12.8 4.1 46.80% 0.77

Except for the ERAs--which we know will fluctuate a lot for short relievers--how could anyone tell the difference?

It's not that $37.5 million is too much for Lidge--it's a reasonable offer in the current market. However, they could have saved at least $10 million by signing him to the same deal three months ago, and they're stupid for not doing it that way.

3 comments:

Alex said...

It really is shocking that the lessons of DIPS still aren't understood by most baseball people.

Donald said...

I agree with you except for the fact that 3 months ago no one was sure if Lidge could get his head back on straight or how healthy he would be.

I'd argue that the Phillies didn't have to do this mid-season and could have waited to make sure his knees hold up and for the ERA to creep back up.

Hells_Satans said...

Your analysis is wrong because it leaves out the most important fact:

Lidge was tipping his pitches in 2006 and 2007. He held his glove in different places for fball and slider. Whoops.

Now it's fixed.


Saves during years pitches not tipped off: 91 for 99.