Sunday, June 29, 2008

Midseason Scorecard

How am I doing?

1. The Angels will NOT run away with the AL West
Grade: Incomplete

Four and a half games is a pretty solid lead--the biggest in any division right now--and pretty much every oddsmaker has the Angels as a 2-1 or higher favorite to win the division.

That said, I don't think you can find an intelligent analyst who will argue that the Angels have outplayed the A's this year. Their run differential is +12 to Oakland's +59, and the A's are seven games ahead in BP's third-order standings. The Angels are still the better team in my opinion, but in a luck-free world, the AL West standings would look a lot different.

2. The Mariners will finish last in the division
Grade: A+

As I said when I made the predictions, I actually had Seattle running about even with Texas this year, but I didn't reckon on injuries to most of Seattle's good players, or on Milton Bradley and Ian Kinsler to be this healthy and effective.

Hindsight being 20-20, everyone is going to claim they knew the Mariners wouldn't be good. Everyone is a liar. Even Keith Law picked them to finish above .500. For shame, Keith.

3. Tampa Bay will crack .500
Grade: B+

Yes, I correctly predicted Tampa would do well, but I clearly undershot this one. Had I trusted the numbers and expected them to win 89 games instead of 84, I would have bet a lot more on their season wins (closed at 76) and futures (closed at 150-1 to win the World Series). Not that I didn't load up on those anyway, but free money is free money.

4. Reds fans will boo Dusty Baker
Grade: Incomplete

Does it count as booing if no one shows up to the games?

5. San Francisco will finish last in the league in runs scored
Grade: C-

I can't see the future, so I didn't know that every National hitter worth anything would get hurt. Still, I should have known that the Padres would be a strong contender for this title. There's still time for the Giants to come back and take this title before season's end.

6. The Tigers will not come close to scoring 1000 runs.
Grade: Such an easy choice that it doesn't deserve one

Of course this was never going to happen, but remember when everyone bought into the hype? That sure was funny. Next thing you know, people will tell you that the White Sox have the best pitching staff in MLB, because they happened to get hot for half a season. Oh wait...

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