Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Why No One Should Brag About Their Giants Futures Ticket

I'm seeing plenty of people bragging that they cashed a ticket on the Giants to win the Super Bowl at odds of 40-1, or sometimes even worse. Congratulations, you won a lot less than you could have.

Without too much effort, you could have found the following money lines on the Giants to win each game along the way:

@TB: +150
@Dal: +300
@GB: +300
vs. NE: +430

Had you invested $100 in a futures ticket at the start of the playoffs at 40-1, you cashed $4100. Not bad. Had you parlayed that same $100, though:

$100 bet at +150 returns $250
$250 bet at +300 returns $1000
$1000 bet at +300 returns $4000
$4000 bet at +430 returns $21200

So your decision to bet the futures ticket instead of each game line ended up costing you a total of $17100. Nicely done.

By the way, this illustrates just how improbable the Giants' Super Bowl run was: if you believe the game lines were accurate, the Giants were a 200-1 underdog to do what they did.. They may not be the worst team to ever win the Super Bowl, but they're certainly the biggest underdog champions ever.

1 comment:

Greg said...

Great post. Although I'm not much of a baseball guy, I always check your blog for great gambling incite like this.