Friday, October 05, 2007

Start A Baseball Hedge Fund!

Right now, bookmakers seem to think the following lines are "correct":

Philadelphia +150 for Game 3

Philadelphia +600 to win NLDS

If these lines are in fact correct, it means we're looking at a 35.7% probability Philadelphia wins games 4 AND 5. That's not even in the ballpark, considering one of those games is in Coors and the other features a Francis-Kendrick pitching matchup.

Looking at this another way, let's say the Phillies swap their pitchers for Games 4 and 5, which shouldn't affect the probabilities that much. Game 5 then features the same starting pitchers and home team as Game 1. The market line for that game was Philadelphia -135, a 57.4% equivalent W%. In order for the 35.7% parlay percentage to be correct, Philly then needs to be a 62.2% favorite, or -164, in a game 4 matchup between Fogg and Kendrick. In Coors Field. Not bloody likely.

If you want to start a gambling hedge fund right now, your first investment should be in a combination of:

Phillies +150 for Game 3
Rockies -600 to win NLDS

You'll thank me later.

2 comments:

Paluka said...

It is interesting how this bet starts to look a lot worse if you just get slightly worse lines. Were you able to get money down on these lines?

results disoriented said...

I actually got Phi +158 when it opened, as you'll see a couple posts down. That was only on CRIS/Greek, though.

Given that the game and series lines were this incongruous, I'm not at all surprised that the money is coming in on Moyer.

As for the series line, my portfolio already requires hedging on Colorado to win the NL, so it's all the same to me.