Friday, October 19, 2007

Barry Rozner is an Idiot

This is why you should never believe anything you read.

Apparently, if the White Sox spend $300 million on A-Rod, "[t]hat money would come back to the Sox five-fold in ticket sales, TV money, team marketing, jerseys brought [sic], and -- best of all -- winning." So, it looks like an expensive contract, but really the White Sox would be generating a $1.2 billion profit by signing him--apparently by selling 30 million extra tickets, plus jerseys and TV revenue. Why, they'd be stupid not to do it!

Does Barry Rozner actually believe this estimate? If A-Rod is really worth $1.5 billion over the duration of his contract, why are teams only offering him $300 million? Apparently none of the 30 MLB teams hires a guy who understands baseball revenues quite like Rozner.

Or, it could be that Rozner is pulling numbers out of his ass, that A-Rod will actually be worth far LESS than $300 million, and that the team that signs him will inevitably regret it years down the road. Let's take another look at the biggest free-agent contracts in MLB history, shall we?

1. A-Rod: After three years, Rangers pay $67 million to dump his contract on the Yankees.
2. Manny Ramirez: Boston places him on irrevocable waivers three years into his deal, attempting to give him away for free. No takers.
3. Mike Hampton: Two years in, Colorado pays $27.5 million AND takes on two bad contracts just to get rid of him.
4. Jason Giambi: Yankees attempt (and fail) to void the remainder of his contract.

This is pretty cut-and-dried. The team that signs A-Rod will grossly overpay for his services, they will NOT get $1.5 billion in revenues out of it--not even if they win five straight World Series--and Barry Rozner should be permanently banned from writing on baseball.

(Hat Tip: MLB Trade Rumors)

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