Thursday, September 27, 2007

My Playoff Odds Estimates

Since I've harped on why BP and Coolstandings are unreliable at this time of year, here are my estimated playoff odds as of the morning of September 27. These numbers reflect all tiebreakers.

AL East:

Red Sox 97.3%
Yankees 2.7%

NL East:

Mets 71.6%
Phillies 28.4%

NL Central:

Cubs 89.6%
Brewers 10.4%

NL West:

D-Backs 72.3%
Rockies 14.9%
Padres 12.7%

NL Wild Card:

Padres 46.4%
Rockies 20.2%
Phillies 15.3%
D-Backs 9.3%
Mets 8.8%


RJA87 said...

Why are the Rockies more likely than the Padres to win the west but not the wildcard?

Joseph said...

My guess would because of the final 3 games they play.

results disoriented said...

since the rockies play the diamondbacks head to head in the final series, they could have won the division by having only three games go their way rather than four or five.

furthermore, they would have won a tiebreaker with the d-backs for the division title, assuming the loser took the wild card. the padres would have lost the same tiebreaker.