Saturday, July 28, 2007

Bad Coco

In the wake of today's blown save and loss for Francisco Cordero, critics are quick to point out his crazy-looking splits: 8.62 ERA on the road, 0.33 at home. The solution is clear: Rest Cordero's arm when the team goes on road trips, so he can give them 80 home innings per year.

The Brewers are a smart organization, so why don't they try this? Probably because each member of their front office passed Stats 101. It's well-known that when you deal with a small sample size, you often get results that are nowhere near the true mean. This is why opinion polls seek answers from more than 20 people. Unfortunately, relief pitchers often force us to work with small samples. This can lead to silly conclusions, like the assumption that Brad Lidge somehow lost the ability to pitch last year, or that Jose Valverde would be perpetually unable to close. Or that Francisco Cordero can't pitch on the road.

Let's look at his base skills entering today, ignoring the hits and runs columns:

Home: 27 IP, 11 BB, 38 K, 0 HR
Road: 15 IP, 3 BB, 19 K, 1 HR

Yeah, I think he'll be fine.

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